Less than two weeks remain before the 2011 MLB All-Star voting closes, and Cleveland fans across the country are sure to be punching their ballots for Tribe players to get as many Indians on the AL team as possible.
Believe it or not, several Indians are already among the voting leaders as of the most recent update. But before we cast our final ballots, it behooves us to ask: what Cleveland players really should appear in the Midsummer Classic.
According to yesterday’s Baseball Prospectus playoff odds update, the Indians have a 15% chance of making the playoffs, meaning they have a roughly 4% chance of reaching the World Series. That’s a real, if small, chance that the outcome of the All-Star Game and its prize of home field advantage in the Fall Classic will matter to the Indians.
With that in mind, blindly punching the ticket for the Tribe’s players might not be in the Indians’ best interest. To help you make your decisions, I’ve categorized the nine Cleveland players on the ballot by how much hometown bias it would take to justify picking them. Happy voting!
Pull the Lever
Asdrubal Cabrera, Shortstop (second, 1,647,802). He leads all AL shortstops in average (.296), slugging percentage (.507), OPS (.850), and wRC+ (142). Alexei Ramirez’ big advantage with the glove probably makes him the better player (he leads Cabrera in WAR, 3.1 to 2.4), but Droobs’ star power, presence on the most surprising team in baseball, and clutch hitting make him a solid choice. And someone’s got to stop Derek Jeter.
Michael Brantley, Outfield (rank n/a). It’s been a breakout year for Brantley, who’s displayed good contact skills (.278 average), solid plate discipline (9.4% walk rate), great speed, solid defense, and even a little bit of power (five home runs). He might not be an All-Star starter outside Cleveland, but he’s within the margin of error when you throw in standard hometown bias.
Somewhat Reasonable
Carlos Santana, Catcher (rank n/a). He’s not the best catcher in the league right now—Alex Avila is a better choice, and Russell Martin might be too if he didn’t play for the Yankees—but given that he’s been suffering from bad luck and isn’t even on the voting leaderboard at catcher, feel free to reward him for his solid power (.702 Power Factor) and zen-like patience (16.8% walk rate).
Travis Hafner, Designated Hitter (fourth, 691,205). Can’t bring yourself to vote for a Red Sock? Hafner is hitting .345 with a .958 OPS and 164 wRC+. His 1.2 WAR puts him right in the mix for the second-most valuable DH, despite having played in only 32 games. He’s been as good as anyone else outside Boston in roughly half the opportunities of his peers.
Shin-Soo Choo, Outfield (14th, 642,387). Bad luck aside, Choo’s having a down year, and for the first time in years he doesn’t look like an All-Star. But given that he’s never been to a Midsummer Classic, you can think of voting for him as overdue support from years past. Far be it for me to condemn supporting the most underappreciated player in baseball.
Bad Ideas
Matt LaPorta, First Base (rank n/a). Sure, LaPorta’s bat’s starting to come alive—look past his .247 average and he’s been an above-average hitter (108 wRC+) despite a .284 BABIP. Unfortunately, thanks to his poor defense and bad baserunning he’s been basically replacement level (0.1 WAR), and that’s not going to cut it at first base. Don’t waste your vote.
Grady Sizemore, Outfield (12th, 739,930). He’s had trouble staying on the field, and even when he’s been healthy he hasn’t been the hitter he once was. In the midst of a strong outfield class, he cracked the Top 12 out of name recognition, not numbers.
Completely Indefensible
Orlando Cabrera, Second Base (fourth, 732,308). Leadership aside, he’s hitting .251 with a .593 OPS, a 65 wRC+, and -0.6 WAR—he’s been bad any way you slice it. How he’s ahead of Ben Zobrist and Howie Kendrick I’ll never understand.
Jason Donald, Third Base (rank n/a). He hasn’t played a major-league game all season. Anyone who voted for Donald should be stripped of his or her ballot.
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