The Cleveland Indians lost again last night, and it wasn’t Justin Masterson’s fault.
The Indians have scored just three runs in their last two games and nine in their last six, spoiling more than one brilliant pitching performance in this week-long homestand.
Newly called-up second infielder Cord Phelps wasn’t the silver bullet (not that he could reasonably have been expected to be), going 0-for-4 in his MLB debut. Nor has Manny Acta’s lineup shuffling seemed to have much impact.
This second point is particularly interesting, as the optimization of the Tribe’s batting order has been a topic of much debate this season. It didn’t seem to matter much when the Indians were invincible early on, but now that they’ve hit a rough patch, people are starting to question how Acta is filling out the lineup card.
In their seminal work—simply titled The Book—Tom Tango, Michael Lichtman, and Andy Dolphin undertook a massive study of how batting orders should best be arranged. In general, the first, fourth, and second hitters should be the best in the lineup at getting on-base, followed by the fifth and third hitters. Power hitters should be lower in the order than on-base experts, and the No. 9 guy should be able to set the table for the leadoff man.
Baseball Musings’ Lineup Analysis tool applies these principles to determining how best to fill out a lineup card. Using the luck-neutral numbers we calculated yesterday (see below) and Jeff Sackmann’s minor-league equivalency numbers for Phelps (.344 OBP, .422 SLG), I ran some lineup optimization tests for the Indians to get an objective idea of what Acta should be doing.
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Here’s the optimized lineup for the Indians as their roster stands now:
| 1 | Santana | C | |
| 2 | A. Cabrera | SS | |
| 3 | Buck | DH | |
| 4 | Brantley | LF | |
| 5 | Sizemore | CF | |
| 6 | Phelps | 2B | |
| 7 | Hannahan | 3B | |
| 8 | LaPorta | 1B | |
| 9 | Choo | RF |
Santana at leadoff makes sense because he’s our top on-base guy. Cabrera, the best overall hitter, comes in in the No. 2 slot, while Michael Brantley’s good on-base skills and decent power would make him an effective—if surprising—cleanup hitter.
Buck’s relatively pedestrian on-base skills and solid power mean he gets the No. 3 hole, while Sizemore—more extreme in both regards—bats fifth. Good on-base guys Phelps and Hannahan set up for LaPorta at the bottom of the lineup, while Choo, who has great plate discipline but the lowest expected slugging percentage in the lineup, paves the way for Santana at the top of the order. Buck, Sizemore, and LaPorta can be switched around without much consequence.
What about when Hafner comes back? What should the order look like then?
| 1 | Santana | C | |
| 2 | A. Cabrera | SS | |
| 3 | LaPorta | 1B | |
| 4 | Brantley | LF | |
| 5 | Hafner | DH | |
| 6 | Phelps | 2B | |
| 7 | Hannahan | 3B | |
| 8 | Sizemore | CF | |
| 9 | Choo | RF |
Looks like Pronk’s return won’t matter that much in terms of lineup optimization. Sizemore and LaPorta change spots, but the Indians could just plug Hafner into Buck’s No. 3 spot without losing much.
What if Acta decides to ease Phelps into a starting role and Orlando Cabrera still sees significant playing time?
| 1 | Santana | C | |
| 2 | A. Cabrera | SS | |
| 3 | LaPorta | 1B | |
| 4 | Brantley | LF | |
| 5 | Hafner | DH | |
| 6 | O. Cabrera | 2B | |
| 7 | Hannahan | 3B | |
| 8 | Sizemore | CF | |
| 9 | Choo | RF |
Well, that was easy—Cabrera just plugs into the No. 6 hole. The rest of the order didn’t change at all.
The odds of Acta actually using any of these lineups aren’t very good—traditionalists would have a field day with Santana as the leadoff hitter and Brantley hitting cleanup, and Tribe fans would mutiny in response to the perceived disrespectfulness towards their beloved Choo hitting ninth.
In addition, these projections don’t take into account things like speed, handedness, and players’ egos or preferences (even if it’s all in his head, a batter won’t play as well if he doesn’t feel comfortable). Most importantly, though, these numbers aren’t the only way to measure players’ true-talent levels; Acta probably isn’t using my xOPS formula when he fills out the lineup card.
Of course, without any historically good hitters or dramatic weak links in their lineup, optimizing the batting order isn’t terribly important—maybe it would be good for an extra win or two over the course of 162 games. But for a surprise contender in the midst of a playoff race, an extra win or two can make the difference between playing baseball and playing golf in October.
At the very least, Orlando Cabrera should never hit second ever again.
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