Big news out of Cleveland on Thursday as Indians promoted their third infield prospect of the season: second baseman Jason Kipnis.
Kipnis, 24, isn’t quite as high-profile a prospect as Lonnie Chisenhall was, but he’s up there for sure. In the 2011 edition of their annual pre-season Top 100 list, Baseball America ranked Kipnis the organization’s third-best prospect (after Chisenhall and Alex White) and the 54th-best prospect in the game. He moved up to No. 31 on BA‘s midseason list, released earlier this month.
Looking at how Kipnis has been demolishing Triple-A pitching, there’s reason to be excited about him joining the Tribe’s lineup. In 90 games this year, he’s hitting .281/.363/.485 with 12 homers, 54 RBI, and 64 runs scored. He’s shown impressive plate discipline (10.9% walk rate), speed (12 steals in 13 attempts) and pop (.726 Power Factor).
So how will he fare in the major leagues?According to Jeff Sackmann’s Minor League Equivalency calculator, Kipnis’ performance in Columbus translates to a .251/.322/.418 triple-slash (108 OPS+) and a pace for 18 homers, 79 RBI, 94 runs scored, and 18 steals over 162 games in the bigs.
Using Matt Klaasen’s linear weights for last year’s wOBA numbers, Kipnis projects to a .322 wOBA. That puts him at just under 5 runs above average offensively over 700 plate appearances–not great, but you could do a lot worse from a rookie middle infielder.
Adding in 23.3 runs of replacement value and a 2.5-run positional adjustment for second base for 700 plate appearances and 162 games, Kipnis comes out at 3.3 wins above replacement in this year’s lowered offensive environment. And that’s assuming neutral defense, which may be underselling him; throw in his +4 FRAA from last year and he’s a 3.7-win player.
That won’t make Kipnis an All-Star caliber player on impact, but a 3.7-WAR true-talent level is pretty darn good for someone who has never before played a major league game. And that’s assuming he doesn’t develop any further this season (which, as a 24-year-old blue-chip prospect, he may be wont to do).
One thing is clear: Kipnis will be a huge upgrade over incumbent second baseman Orlando Cabrera. Based on Kipnis’ projected and Cabrera’s current WAR paces, Kipnis would be worth nearly five full wins more than Cabrera over a full season.
Putting Kipnis at second base ups Cleveland’s odds of winning by as much as three percent every game—that might not sound like much, but it adds up. If Kipnis plays in place of Cabrera in each of the Tribe’s remaining 65 games, the Indians will win two extra games. That ain’t nothin’ when you consider that only half a game separates the Indians and the first-place Detroit Tigers in the AL Central right now.
Kipnis can’t single-handedly carry this team to the postseason (not that any individual mortal player could single-handedly carry any team), but look for him to be a solid contributor for the stretch run, and if the AL Central stays this close, his replacing Cabrera could conceivably make the difference in the division race.
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